Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, disconnected from Nvidia in its second active investment decision: in the third quarter of 2025, the entire package - 537,742 shares - was sold, and by the end of September the fund no longer held any NVDA positions. At KeyToFinancialTrends, we view this move as reflecting growing skepticism about the overheating AI chip market.
The volume of shares sold was estimated at approximately $100 million at the closing price on September 30. Previously, Nvidia made up a significant part of Thiel Macro’s portfolio - about 40%. At the same time, the fund significantly reduced its position in Tesla, selling about 76% of the shares, and reduced the overall portfolio size - from approximately $212 million to $74.4 million. Instead, Thiel Macro concentrated its efforts on Apple and Microsoft, buying approximately 79,181 and 49,000 shares, respectively. In our opinion, this rebalancing is a sign of a strategic shift away from high concentration in AI chips toward more established tech giants with a diversified business model.
The exit from Nvidia comes at a time when other major players are also reassessing their positions. For example, SoftBank recently sold its entire NVDA package. This synchronized capitulation of two influential investors increases concerns that growth in valuations of tech companies on the wave of artificial intelligence may be too fast and not supported by fundamentals.
At KeyToFinancialTrends, we believe that Thiel Macro’s decision is not just profit-taking but a clear risk restructuring. This portfolio reversal indicates that the fund evaluates AI prospects much more cautiously than before. The exit from Nvidia, part of which, in our estimation, was motivated by a reassessment of prospects, signals that Thiel is not ready to hold a large portion of capital in assets tied to the hottest segment of the tech market.
The key now is fundamental analysis of Nvidia: its third-quarter report may become a litmus test for the sustainability of demand for data center accelerators. At KeyToFinancialTrends, we predict that any weak results - especially regarding margins and capital expenditure guidance - could trigger further market reassessment. Conversely, if Nvidia shows strong demand, particularly in hyperscale data centers and cloud providers, it could give the market a boost for a new wave of growth.
Key To Financial Trends recommends that investors reconsider their current exposure to AI assets and possibly reduce concentration in companies with high valuations whose value heavily depends on future demand; at the same time, consider increasing shares in more stable tech leaders, such as Apple and Microsoft, which demonstrate diversified revenue sources. Investors should also closely monitor Nvidia’s earnings and other key participants in the AI market - they can give a clearer picture of whether current growth rates are justified and supported by fundamentals.
