KeyToFinancialTrends notes that the recent news about the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has become a significant factor for global markets, especially the gold market. Immediately after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire and the start of negotiations for conflict resolution, gold prices rose by 1.7%, reaching $4783.78 per ounce. This marked nearly a three-week high, and at one point, the price of gold increased by more than 3%, hitting its highest level since March. Meanwhile, gold futures in the US for June delivery rose by 2.7%, reaching $4812.60 per ounce.
These changes can be explained by several factors. First, the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran reduced geopolitical tension in the region, leading to a drop in oil prices by more than 13%. Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel, providing an additional boost to gold. Iran also agreed to suspend its blockade of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the threat to global energy security. It is important to note that oil and gold often move in opposite directions: when oil prices drop, it encourages the rise of gold as a safe-haven asset.
The weakening of the dollar also played a role, with the dollar dropping to its lowest level in a month. In times of weakness in dollar-denominated assets, investors traditionally turn to gold as a «safe-haven asset.» KeyToFinancialTrends analysts emphasize that gold continues to show growth in recent days, mainly due to the weakening of the dollar and instability in the oil markets. Experts also note that the anticipated rate cuts in the US are supporting gold’s rise.
However, it is important to understand that the rise in interest rates in the US in recent months has put pressure on gold, making it a less attractive asset. Since the beginning of the attacks in the US and Israel on February 28, 2026, gold has lost 10% of its value. This occurred amid rising interest rates, causing investors to shift towards income-generating assets. However, the current forecasts of rate cuts in the US have reignited interest in gold.
According to the latest data from the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of at least one rate cut by the end of 2026 is now 43%, significantly higher than just a few days ago. This change in forecast is certainly supporting interest in gold and increases the likelihood that the metal will continue to appreciate in value.
At KeyToFinancialTrends, we believe that gold remains one of the most attractive opportunities for investors seeking protection from global risks. The expected rate cuts and the rise in global debt will continue to support demand for this precious metal. Our forecasts suggest that gold could reach $5900 per ounce by the end of 2026. The long-term growth of gold will also be stimulated by growing uncertainty in global markets and continued geopolitical instability.
It is important to note that despite short-term fluctuations, gold has historically maintained its value during periods of economic and political turmoil. Amid global changes and instability in the oil markets, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset continues to rise. In the coming months, gold is likely to continue showing positive dynamics, especially if the US continues to lower interest rates and real yields remain low.
Thus, the current events in the gold market and the global economic situation confirm our position that gold will remain an important tool for capital protection. At Key To Financial Trends, we continue to maintain the forecast that in the coming years, gold will remain an essential element in portfolio diversification, and we expect further growth in 2026.
